Apple (AAPL)
Tecnología / hardware + servicios
The best ecosystem in the world, with Services (75% gross margin) lifting the mix. But at ~$310 (~39× owner-FCF) it is a wonderful business at a defensive-quality price: Preserves value, with Google's search payment as the key risk.
- Price
- $309.79
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $322
- Total annual return (5y)
- 1.2%
- Status (nominal)
- Preserves value
- Margin of safety
- No margin
The essentials
- The ecosystem (iOS + in-house chips + Services) is a wide moat with high switching costs; Services (~26% of revenue, +14%) carry ~75% gross margin and lift the consolidated margin.
- But it is a mature business (iPhone ~50%, mid-single-digit growth) at ~39× owner-FCF — the richest cash multiple among mega-cap tech — paying up for defensive quality.
- The key risk is the Google payment (~$20 billion a year, almost all margin) for default search, now at risk from antitrust. The buyback (~2% of shares/year) sustains per-share value.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
Total return at 5 years: 1.2%/year = 0.8% appreciation + 0.4% dividend. The target price ($322) is ex-dividend; the $6 in dividends collected over 5 years are added separately.
By both methods, the value today (DCF $231 · Multiples $264) is below the market price ($310).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — expensive, no margin of safety: at $310 trades ~17.4% above its value discounted to today (~$264); the expected return does not even reach the risk-free rate (4.5%).
At 5 years — Preserva valor: the target price ($322) plus dividends yield just enough to preserve nominal capital, below the required 4% floor.
The bridge: the return at 5 years falls below the risk-free rate (4.5%) — which is why there is not even a discount to today's value. To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$164.
Thesis
The business
By quality, Apple is one of the best businesses in the world: an ecosystem with high switching costs, an unmatched brand, an extremely high return on capital (very low capex), and a Services engine at ~75% gross margin that lifts the mix and the consolidated margin. The flip side is maturity: the iPhone (~50% of revenue) grows in the low single digits and consolidated growth is mid-single-digit; the recent acceleration (+17% in the first half of 2026) rests on China's recovery and an easy comparison, not a new structural trend.
The valuation
It is valued on EV/owner-FCF net of SBC — free cash flow minus stock-based compensation, a real cost that reported FCF adds back — and not on P/E: it is cash, not accounting earnings, and it makes visible the ~$62bn of net cash that P/E buries inside the multiple. The base scenario projects a value of ~$322 per share over five years, an annual return of ~+1% from the current ~$310.
The problem is the price: at ~$310 the stock trades at ~39× owner-FCF — the richest cash multiple among the mega-cap tech names — for mid-single-digit growth. The multiple compression, from ~39× to ~28× over five years, absorbs much of the growth; the buyback (~2% of shares a year) is what sustains the return.
The margin of safety
The verdict is Preserves value: No margin of safety: at this price capital is preserved, but it is not bought below its value.. At ~$310 the expected return (~+1%) sits below even the risk-free rate: the stock is fully valued, with no margin of safety today. This is the dynamic of a wonderful business priced for defensive quality — certainty is what gets paid for. A margin of safety would only appear at a lower entry price, or if Services and AI reaccelerate growth above the base case.
What to watch
The main structural risk is the Google payment (~$20 billion a year, almost all margin): if the antitrust case on appeal ends up banning it, Services profit takes a direct hit. The other fronts: App Store regulation (the European Union's Digital Markets Act and the Epic ruling) eroding monetization; concentration in the iPhone and dependence on its upgrade cycle; and Greater China, caught between local competition and geopolitics. The upside lever is Apple Intelligence reigniting the upgrade cycle while Services keep lifting the mix.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.