Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)
Financieras / Seguros
Assurant protects connected devices, autos, and homes under a B2B2C model with multiyear contracts; at 13× on normalized earnings and with 2026 guidance just raised, Fairly valued and an estimated return of +10% annually over 5 years, with It trades close to intrinsic value, far from the required margin of safety..
- Price
- $283.93
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $425
- Total annual return (5y)
- 9.7%
- Status (nominal)
- Fairly valued
- Margin of safety
- +21%
The essentials
- Two segments of distinct nature —Global Lifestyle (device and auto protection, ~78% of revenue) and Global Housing (lender-placed home insurance, ~22%)— with multiyear B2B2C relationships that raise the client's switching cost.
- The August 4, 2026 release raised 2026 guidance after a record second quarter: adjusted EPS ex-catastrophes grows 'mid-single digit' on a reported basis and 'approximately 10%' on an underlying basis, with buybacks toward the upper end of $300-350 million.
- ROE of 17.4% over the trailing twelve months (comfortably above the 10% bar), capital retention of ~48% after dividends and buybacks, and a moderate debt-to-capital ratio of 27.3%.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
Total return at 5 years: 9.7%/year = 8.4% appreciation + 1.3% dividend. The target price ($425) is ex-dividend; the $22 in dividends collected over 5 years are added separately.
By both methods, the value today (DCF $648 · Multiples $360) exceeds the market price ($284).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — fairly valued: at $284 trades ~21.2% below its value discounted to today (~$360); the discount is positive but does not reach the margin of safety we require (≥38%).
At 5 years — En valor: the target price ($425) plus dividends yield between the 4% floor and the 10% average return — a reasonable return, though without the margin of a great investment.
The bridge: the return at 5 years exceeds the risk-free rate (4.5%) — but the discount does not reach the required margin of safety (≥38%). To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$226.
Thesis
The business
Assurant is a B2B2C protection company with two segments of distinct economics: Global Lifestyle, capital-light and fee-based on managed device and auto contracts, and Global Housing, a pure home insurer with catastrophe exposure. The moat is narrow and stable, built on multiyear contractual relationships and operating scale —not network effects—, with a trailing-twelve-month ROE of 17.4%, comfortably above the 10% bar.
The valuation
It is valued at the equity level via P/E on normalized net income (the two segments share a single regulated capital base, with no funding structure that warrants a separate EV-to-equity bridge). At 13× on normalized TTM earnings, with the base path decelerating from 8% to 6% by year 5, the projected 5-year value is $425 per share.
The margin of safety
At a market price of $284, the multiples valuation yields Fairly valued with an estimated return of +10% annually over 5 years, and It trades close to intrinsic value, far from the required margin of safety..
What to watch
The central risk to the thesis is a reversal of the catastrophe and reserve development favorability that drove the TTM: if the second half of 2026 normalizes, reported growth moves closer to the guided 'mid-single digit' than to the underlying 10%. Concentration among a few key distribution clients is the second disconfirmer to monitor.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.