Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
Cable, Medios y Entretenimiento
Comcast combines the largest broadband and mobile network in the United States with a media, studios, and theme parks conglomerate that just spun off Versant and announced the spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky; the market punishes it with the multiple of a cable operator in structural decline, without recognizing the value of its higher-growth pieces (mobile service, business services, theme parks, and a Peacock that just turned profitable).
- Price
- $27.19
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $60
- Total annual return (5y)
- 21.6%
- Status (nominal)
- Very undervalued
- Margin of safety
- +51%
The essentials
- Sum of the parts with a wide margin: market price below even the model's adverse scenario.
- Connectivity & Platforms (81% of the value) has an eroding moat; mobile service and Business Services are the counterweight.
- Announced spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky (Jul-2026) is a re-rating catalyst pending execution, with the buyback paused in the meantime.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
Total return at 5 years: 21.6%/year = 17.2% appreciation + 4.3% dividend. The target price ($60) is ex-dividend; the $8 in dividends collected over 5 years are added separately.
By both methods, the value today (DCF $104 · Multiples $55) exceeds the market price ($27).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — with margin of safety: at $27 trades ~50.8% below its value discounted to today (~$55) — the wide discount we require (≥38%, equivalent to a ~15% annual return); the risk is covered by the margin, not the rate.
At 5 years — Muy infravalorado: the target price ($60) plus dividends yield above the required average return (10%) — the business compounds.
The bridge: the return at 5 years comfortably exceeds the risk-free rate (4.5%) — and the discount reaches the required margin of safety.
Thesis
The business
Comcast is a set of businesses of uneven quality under a single balance sheet: a dominant connectivity network but with the moat eroding (residential video and broadband in structural decline, though mobile service and business services grow strongly), and a content conglomerate with quality assets — sports rights, the Studios library, theme parks — that is only now beginning to monetize streaming profitably via Peacock. The announced spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky acknowledges that these economics no longer share enough synergies to justify a single balance sheet.
The valuation
Given the mixed nature of the business, it is valued as a sum of the parts: Connectivity & Platforms at EV/EBIT ~13× (81% of the value), Media ~12.5×, Studios ~12×, and Theme Parks ~15×, within the 12-16× band of the media conglomerate archetype. The 5-year value comes from projecting each piece with its own margin and multiplying it by its exit multiple, yielding $60 per share, versus a market price of $27, for a Very undervalued at a CAGR of +22%.
The margin of safety
There is a margin of safety: the market's perception is meaningfully worse than reality. The market price incorporates a smaller fraction of the intrinsic value projected over 5 years, discounted at the 4.5% floor risk-free rate. The origin of the gap combines the classic holding/conglomerate discount, execution uncertainty around the announced separation of NBCUniversal and Sky, and structural fear over the decline of linear video and broadband, which the market extends indiscriminately to the rest of the portfolio.
What to watch
The central disconfirmer is that the dominant piece — Connectivity & Platforms, ~81% of the sum-of-the-parts value — keeps losing residential broadband customers faster than mobile service and business services growth can offset; there, the EBIT margin does not expand as the base case projects and the 13× exit multiple becomes optimism. The second test is execution of the NBCUniversal and Sky spin-off: if transaction costs and management distraction exceed expectations, the paused buyback might not resume within the 5-year horizon, reducing the return delivered through shares.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.