S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
Servicios financieros / Datos, índices y calificaciones
Four benchmark franchises —credit ratings, indices, market data and commodity price assessments— with adjusted operating margin near 50 percent and a recently completed spin-off that left the company more concentrated and more profitable; at 28× on adjusted earnings, It trades close to intrinsic value, far from the required margin of safety. and the estimated return is +6% per year, verdict Fairly valued.
- Price
- $433.05
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $548
- Total annual return (5y)
- 5.7%
- Status (nominal)
- Fairly valued
- Margin of safety
- +6%
The essentials
- On July 1, 2026 the spin-off of the Mobility segment into an independent, separately listed company was completed. This analysis is based on the unaudited condensed pro forma statements in the 8-K/A filed on July 6, 2026, which present the remaining company: revenue of 13,589 million and operating profit of 6,140 million in 2025, against 15,336 and 6,478 million on a consolidated basis.
- The 22 percent decline from the 52-week high (market data, no specific date in the sources reviewed) is only partially mechanical: Mobility accounted for just 5.2 percent of pro forma operating profit (338 of 6,478 million), so at most 5 to 7 points of the decline are explained by the spin-off. The remaining 15 to 18 points reflect a genuine re-rating of the business that remains, driven by the expected normalization of debt issuance after two exceptional fiscal years and by the fear of data commoditization from artificial intelligence.
- Ratings contributes close to half of operating profit with a margin of 63.8 percent, and is the piece most tied to the cycle: its transactional revenue tracks the volume and amount of debt issued. Billed issuance grew 11 percent in 2025 to 4.3 trillion dollars, after the prior year's 54 percent rebound.
- Indices is the piece with the best economics: it charges fees tied to the assets that track its benchmarks without managing that capital. Assets in exchange-traded funds indexed to its benchmarks closed 2025 at 5.48 trillion dollars, 25 percent above the prior year.
- The company returns more than its free cash flow: 11,600 million in buybacks and 3,500 million in dividends over three fiscal years. Average diluted shares fell from 318.9 to 305.1 million between 2023 and 2025, close to 2.2 percent per year.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
Total return at 5 years: 5.7%/year = 4.8% appreciation + 0.9% dividend. The target price ($548) is ex-dividend; the $22 in dividends collected over 5 years are added separately.
By both methods, the value today (DCF $487 · Multiples $459) exceeds the market price ($433).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — fairly valued: at $433 trades ~5.6% below its value discounted to today (~$459); the discount is positive but does not reach the margin of safety we require (≥38%).
At 5 years — En valor: the target price ($548) plus dividends yield between the 4% floor and the 10% average return — a reasonable return, though without the margin of a great investment.
The bridge: the return at 5 years exceeds the risk-free rate (4.5%) — but the discount does not reach the required margin of safety (≥38%). To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$287.
Thesis
The business
Four benchmark franchises with adjusted operating margin near 50 percent, low capital employed —capex is 1.4 percent of revenue— and favorable working capital, because subscriptions are billed in advance and leave close to 4,088 million in deferred revenue (consolidated balance sheet, FY2025 10-K) funding the operation. Quality is not in question; what is debated is how much is paid for it and how much it grows.
The valuation
It is valued by sum of the parts, each piece with its own multiple: Ratings and the commodities business within the band of a benchmark provider, Indices at the high end for being a royalty on passive management, and Market Intelligence at the low end for its slower growth and direct exposure to data commoditization. The metric is adjusted earnings, with acquisition intangible amortization and gains on divestitures excluded — the only two adjustments the pro forma statement discloses with precision. Today it trades at 28× and the model takes it to 20× on fifth-year earnings.
The margin of safety
It trades close to intrinsic value, far from the required margin of safety. The estimated five-year value is $548 per share against a price of $433, leaving an estimated total return of +6% per year: +5% from appreciation and +1% from dividends. To require a 15 percent annual return, the price would have to be -51%. The verdict is Fairly valued.
What to watch
Three things. The first is rated debt issuance: it is the company's most cyclical revenue and comes off two exceptional years, so a downward normalization hits directly the piece that contributes the most profit. The second is renewal and pricing in Market Intelligence, which is where AI commoditization would show up first. The third is execution on capital return: the thesis depends on the share count reduction —2.2 percent annualized realized between 2023 and 2025, projected at 2.3 percent— holding.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.