Autodesk (ADSK)
Tecnología / Software de diseño e ingeniería (CAD/BIM)
De facto leader in design software (AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion), with 97% recurring revenue and net retention above the 100-110% range, but a moat under pressure from low barriers to entry and the generative AI disruption risk the 10-K itself discloses. At $252 (37× earnings), 5y base $362 (+8%/year, +8% total): Fairly valued.
- Price
- $251.61
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $362
- Total annual return (5y)
- 7.5%
- Status (nominal)
- Fairly valued
- Margin of safety
- +13%
The essentials
- De facto standard in computer-aided design (AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion, Maya) with 97% subscription/EBA recurring revenue and net retention (NR3) above the 100-110% range at constant currency — contracted revenue (RPO $8.30bn, +20% year over year) confirms demand before it reaches the income statement.
- Fiscal 2026 GAAP operating income was depressed by $216M of restructuring charges (two plans reallocating resources toward cloud and artificial intelligence); the most recent quarter already shows the margin recovering. The filing itself discloses that the industry has limited barriers to entry and that generative AI could alter demand unpredictably — the moat is wide but its direction is gradual erosion, not widening.
- Trading at 37× earnings — 27% below its 52-week high — on a trajectory that anchors on the revenue and earnings-per-share guidance from the May 28, 2026 release for fiscal 2027. 5y base $362/share (+8% total, no dividend): Fairly valued.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
By both methods, the value today (DCF $302 · Multiples $290) exceeds the market price ($252).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — fairly valued: at $252 trades ~13.4% below its value discounted to today (~$290); the discount is positive but does not reach the margin of safety we require (≥38%).
At 5 years — En valor: the target price ($362) plus dividends yield between the 4% floor and the 10% average return — a reasonable return, though without the margin of a great investment.
The bridge: the return at 5 years exceeds the risk-free rate (4.5%) — but the discount does not reach the required margin of safety (≥38%). To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$180.
Thesis
The business
Autodesk is the de facto standard in computer-aided design, with a highly recurring subscription model (97% of revenue) and net retention above the 100-110% range. Fiscal 2026 operating income was depressed by $216M of restructuring charges from two plans reallocating resources toward cloud and artificial intelligence; the TTM already shows the margin recovering. The moat — switching costs from the AutoCAD/Revit/Fusion ecosystem — is wide, but the filing itself acknowledges low barriers to entry and the risk of generative AI disruption: the direction is gradual erosion, not widening.
The valuation
A quality enterprise software company is valued on P/E over net income, which expenses stock-based compensation (9.5% of revenue, 26.1% of TTM FCF) with no adjustment needed. Year 1 anchors on both anchors of the guidance from the May 28, 2026 release for fiscal 2027: revenue with a midpoint of $8,185M (+9.0% over TTM) and GAAP earnings per share with a midpoint of $8.35 (net margin ~21.4%, a real improvement over TTM as restructuring is left behind).
From there, net income decelerates smoothly toward ~7% terminal growth by year 5, with the multiple compressing from 37× toward ~27× (within the quality enterprise software band). That gives $362/share at five years → a price CAGR of +8% — with no dividend, total return is +8%.
The margin of safety
It trades close to intrinsic value, far from the required margin of safety. Total return of +8% compares against the method's three required-return thresholds (4% floor, 10% average, 15% high-conviction). The verdict is Fairly valued: a wide-moat business under gradual erosion, with earnings currently depressed by non-recurring charges and a trajectory that is just beginning to show the margin recovery the company itself guided to.
What to watch
The central disconfirmer is net retention (NR3): if it falls below 100%, the wide-moat thesis weakens immediately. Second, the speed at which generative AI reduces the cost of building competing design tools — the filing itself flags this as a risk, not an outside concern. Third, if the operating margin fails to recover to guided levels after the close of the two fiscal 2026 restructuring plans, the base-case margin trajectory is invalidated. The transition to annual billing on multi-year contracts may continue to generate billing-calendar noise through fiscal 2027.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.