Uber Technologies (UBER)
Plataformas de movilidad, reparto y logística
Uber is the dominant marketplace for mobility and delivery in more than 70 countries, with margins expanding steadily and free cash flow that surpassed US$10,000 million annually for the first time; it trades It trades at a real discount to value, though short of the required margin of safety. after the 24% correction from its 52-week high.
- Price
- $79.75
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $137
- Total annual return (5y)
- 11.5%
- Status (nominal)
- Undervalued
- Margin of safety
- +28%
The essentials
- Gross bookings grew 22% at constant currency in the second quarter of 2026, while reported revenue growth looks artificially lower because of a business-model change that subtracts 8 percentage points from the year-over-year comparison.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow surpassed US$10,000 million for the first time in the company's history, funding a share buyback of nearly US$6,900 million.
- Return on invested capital runs near 14.7%, above the 10% bar, with a margin-expansion path that still has room to run.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
By both methods, the value today (DCF $103 · Multiples $110) exceeds the market price ($80).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — fairly valued: at $80 trades ~27.5% below its value discounted to today (~$110); the discount is positive but does not reach the margin of safety we require (≥38%).
At 5 years — Infravalorado: the target price ($137) plus dividends yield above the required average return (10%) — the business compounds.
The bridge: the return at 5 years exceeds the risk-free rate (4.5%) — but the discount does not reach the required margin of safety (≥38%). To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$68.
Thesis
The business
Uber is a capital-light intermediation marketplace with network effects, the leader in Mobility and Delivery across most Western markets, with operating leverage already underway and two high-margin revenue sources (advertising and Uber One) still in early scaling. Business quality is high, with caveats: switching costs between platforms are structurally low, and the risk of driver labor reclassification is real.
The valuation
It is valued on EV/NOPAT, the correct metric for a capital-light marketplace that charges capex and expenses stock-based compensation. With the projected revenue and margin path and a terminal exit multiple within the marketplace archetype band (18x-25x), the base case's five-year value runs about $137, against a market price of $80, implying Undervalued with an estimated total return of +11% annually.
The margin of safety
The price trades It trades at a real discount to value, though short of the required margin of safety. against the value brought to today at the risk-free rate with a floor. The adverse case shows a return close to zero (labor reclassification and autonomous-vehicle competition are the main disconfirmers), while the favorable case assumes that accelerating advertising and consolidation as an autonomous-fleet aggregator sustain a higher multiple.
What to watch
The central test of the thesis is twofold: whether reported revenue growth converges back toward gross-bookings growth once the business-model change stops distorting the year-over-year comparison, and whether Uber manages to remain an aggregator of third-party autonomous vehicles instead of losing share to operators that deploy their own fleets.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.