Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
Equipos de capital para semiconductores
Leader in semiconductor fabrication equipment with the industry's broadest portfolio and guidance for more than 30% growth in its equipment business for calendar year 2026, but trading at 55× on NOPAT after a run of $478 from a 52-week low of $156, a multiple that already requires much of this AI investment supercycle to materialize to justify the current price.
- Price
- $477.94
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $395
- Total annual return (5y)
- -3.0%
- Status (nominal)
- Overvalued
- Margin of safety
- No margin
The essentials
- Record revenue and earnings per share in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 32.1%, expanding year over year.
- Management guided more than 30% growth for the semiconductor equipment business for calendar year 2026, driven by the buildout of AI infrastructure.
- The stock trades at 55× on NOPAT, well above the archetype's 18-25× exit range, leaving Overvalued as the method's reading.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
Total return at 5 years: -3.0%/year = -3.7% appreciation + 0.7% dividend. The target price ($395) is ex-dividend; the $16 in dividends collected over 5 years are added separately.
By both methods, the value today (DCF $153 · Multiples $331) is below the market price ($478).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — expensive, no margin of safety: at $478 trades ~44.3% above its value discounted to today (~$331); the expected return does not even reach the risk-free rate (4.5%).
At 5 years — Sobrevalorado: the expected total return is negative — the price already discounts a demanding scenario that, if not met, results in a loss.
The bridge: the return at 5 years falls below the risk-free rate (4.5%) — which is why there is not even a discount to today's value. To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$207.
Thesis
The business
Applied Materials combines the industry's broadest capital equipment portfolio for semiconductors with a recurring services stream across its global installed base. Return on invested capital of 29.2% comfortably exceeds the 10% bar, and the $15,002 million backlog provides visibility into already-contracted revenue. It is a business of proven quality, though structurally cyclical and exposed to U.S.-China trade policy.
The valuation
Valued on EV/NOPAT, the metric that charges capex and expenses the effect of the tax rate, on a path that starts from the company's current guidance (more than 30% growth for the equipment business in 2026) and decelerates geometrically toward a durable 7% by year 5. The base-case exit multiple, 21× EV/NOPAT, sits within the semis archetype band [18,25×]. Under these assumptions, five-year value is $395 per share, against a price of $478 today: -3% annually.
The margin of safety
No margin of safety: the price already discounts a demanding scenario. Today's price already embeds an entry multiple well above the archetype's exit range, which consumes the margin of safety the method requires before even considering the adverse scenario. Overvalued is the reading that results from comparing price against projected value, not a statement about the quality of the business.
What to watch
The central disconfirmer is whether the equipment business truly sustains growth above 30% throughout calendar year 2026: backlog and quarterly orders by segment are the earliest signal of whether AI demand is translating into firm orders rather than mere expectation. Further tightening of export controls toward China, or a slowdown in chipmakers' capital spending, would reverse the growth thesis without the underlying business needing to deteriorate.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.