Check Point (CHKP)
Software de seguridad y ciberseguridad
The pioneer of the modern firewall, with 24 consecutive years as a Gartner leader and security subscriptions growing at +10% year over year, trades 38% below its high after a quarter of soft growth, with a real but narrow moat against faster-growing rivals.
- Price
- $128.06
- Intrinsic value (5y, base)
- $220
- Total annual return (5y)
- 11.4%
- Status (nominal)
- Undervalued
- Margin of safety
- +27%
The essentials
- TTM revenue of $2,725.4M growing 6.3% year over year, with security subscriptions (45% of the total) as the engine at +10.4%.
- Capital-light model: capex of barely ~1% of revenue, with sustained buybacks (~$1.4bn in 2025) that reduced shares outstanding ~13% over three years.
- Trades 38% below its 52-week high after a second quarter of 2026 with revenue nearly flat (+1.3% year over year), even as the company kept its full-year earnings guidance.
Intrinsic value — two valuation methods
By both methods, the value today (DCF $244 · Multiples $177) exceeds the market price ($128).
Pillars of the analysis
The verdict — today vs 5 years
Today — fairly valued: at $128 trades ~27.5% below its value discounted to today (~$177); the discount is positive but does not reach the margin of safety we require (≥38%).
At 5 years — Infravalorado: the target price ($220) plus dividends yield above the required average return (10%) — the business compounds.
The bridge: the return at 5 years exceeds the risk-free rate (4.5%) — but the discount does not reach the required margin of safety (≥38%). To require a 15% annual return, it would need to be bought at ~$109.
Thesis
The business
Capital-light business (capex ~1% of revenue) with a narrow but real moat: sustained Gartner leadership, high switching costs and a recurring subscription base growing at +10% year over year. The operating margin compressed from 34% to 30.5% over the last year on higher stock-based compensation and cloud infrastructure spend, and consolidated growth decelerated sharply in the second quarter of 2026.
The valuation
Valued on owner-FCF net of stock-based compensation (TTM owner-FCF ~$967M) at 13×, within the band for mature software (14x-20x). The base case projects revenue decelerating to 3.5% in year 1 —a declared reflection of the observed slowdown— and converging to ~5% by year 5, with a 5-year value that implies a return of +11%.
The margin of safety
At market price, the stock trades It trades at a real discount to value, though short of the required margin of safety.. The base-case verdict is Undervalued. With the stock 38% below its 52-week high and no new structural event identified beyond a quarter of soft growth, the margin of safety comes mainly from the market having already priced in the deceleration.
What to watch
The central disconfirmer is that firewall hardware weakness spreads to security subscriptions, today the only relevant growth engine. If the FY2026 earnings guidance ends up being cut in coming releases, the base case loses its anchor; if instead subscriptions sustain double-digit growth, the soft quarter stands as an isolated hardware setback.
Educational / informational. Does not constitute investment advice.